As technology improves, fewer people are walking into public buildings

Before the latest James Cameron sci-fi opened in theaters, only geeks knew about avatars. But in the next two decades, we may become avatars.

"We'll have instantaneous, interactive, oral and visual connectivity with anyone, anywhere, anytime in the world," predicted Norman Stephens, president of South Florida Community College. "I wouldn't be surprised if the experience were virtual reality."

If that sounds too futuristic, remember that 3-D TV - the VR frontier - is already at Sears in Lakeshore Mall, and that students take classes on their computers.

"Imagine having a virtual meeting with a bunch of people or family members who are actually all over the world," Stephens said, "but you feel like you are all there in the same place with the ability to walk around, talk, listen and do things together."

Future shock

In adult education, scheduling has always been a conflict. Students aren't available when the instructor is, or they're 30 minutes late, or their child is sick, or they need to start two weeks after the semester begins.

What if the teacher could teach at a time convenient to him, and the students - or their avatars - could appear in the classroom and learn at their own pace? That's not distance learning, where the teacher talks and the students learn at the same time. It's what educators call "asynchronous instructional modalities."

"We're removing time barriers more than distance barriers," Stephens said.

Who needs buildings?

As technology improves, fewer people are walking into public offices.

"As our citizens are able access more information on the Internet from home or office, it certainly reduces the number of visits to the government offices, which reduces traffic flow," said Property Appraiser Raymond McIntyre. When his website went online in 1998, he saw an immediate reduction in visits to his office.

That decline continues elsewhere.

"I can see the day when people will only come to our offices to go to court," said Clerk of Courts Bob Germaine.

Already, citizens can:

•Pay traffic tickets at www.myfloridacounty.com/services/pay_traffic_citation_intro.shtml

•Pay child support and view payment history at www.myfloridacounty.com/services/child_support/index.shtml

•Search civil (real estate, marriages, lawsuits) records at www.hcclerk.org

•Search criminal court records at www.hcclerk.org

•Order official records at myfloridacounty.com/services/officialrecords_intro.shtml.

•View in-progress county commission meetings, and previous meetings back to October 2008 at www.hcclerk.org

•eRecord official records. Any business or individual can enroll in the program at 863-402-6596.

"All of these efforts will lessen foot traffic within county buildings, decrease clerical staff and office space, and reduce government spending," Germaine said.

In January 2011, Clericus will allow attorneys, individuals, police officers, deputies and troopers to electronically interface. In the future, he'll implement work-from-home and collaboration programs for employees as well.

Efficiency

In the future, all this technology means governments may hire fewer workers.

"From 1989 to 2010, we only added four new positions in our office," said McIntyre. "I credit this to the use of computers and other technology advancements. At this time, I believe we are stabilized in the number of staff and amount of office space needed for many years into the future."

Those who run public offices have no crystal balls.

When McIntyre saw the first global imaging satellite system demonstrated in 1989, he said, "We can buy a train load of pencils and erasers for what that thing costs."

But it wasn't a pipe dream. "Today every county in Florida has one, and they are great tools."

Each day, he has to think about more efficient technology.

"We have to appraise 120,000 parcels of real estate each year," McIntyre said. "This process must go on in times of good economy or bad. It is a workload that does not change much in the way of staff and resources needed to get the job done."

One day, appraisers may use virtual tour video to evaluate property. But not yet.

"Nothing can replace being on the ground and walking around a building to determine the condition of that improvement," he said. "With virtual images you cannot see the back yard and any improvements that may have been built or placed there. You also cannot tell with much detail the condition of the roof, walls, doors, electrical, plumbing, etc."

McIntyre doesn't see technology replacing the field work. "Much of our work involves rolling up our sleeves and getting out into the field and going house to house reviewing the condition and status of each home and property."

No Robocop

Technology helps law enforcement, but Sheriff Susan Benton doesn't think it will replace live deputies.

"I don't see it affecting us as much as maybe others," she said. "We still will have 400 inmates to secure, feed, and provide medical care for. We will still have to answer 911 and send help. We will still have deputies responding in the field. We will still have to procure materials, manage human resources, pay bills and write paychecks.

"I can see some folks using the Internet to report minor-in-nature crimes, looking up public records, deputies completing and transmitting more reports electronically, but unfortunately, not with less people," she said.

Virtual books

Will people still go to libraries in 20 years?

"I think hardbacks will still be around," said Highlands County Library Coordinator Mary Myers. Patrons already have access to e-books.

Downloadable movies and TV shows are available too, but she admits, "It's not the best content. Not a lot of people are interested in old Julia Child cooking shows."

Libraries won't partner with a private company like Netflix. "They really aren't set up for multiple circulation," Myers said. Netflix is licensed to sell to one user at a time, not to libraries.

However, she sees a future where Recorded Books LLC will offer a Netflix-like database to multiple library patrons. They can download and watch movies and TV shows in their homes, businesses, wherever the wireless Internet is available.

Tax-supported wireless Internet could become available to the masses. SFCC, the local libraries, hotels and restaurants already offer free wi-fi; Myers thinks the day will come when rural subdivisions, cities and counties will be wi-fied by the government. That's when the digital divide - between computer owners with the Internet, and non-computer owners without the Internet - will disappear.

She's not even certain foot traffic will diminish at libraries. "There are more and more people in here every day," Myers said.

Myers' worst-case scenario is that the library will become an ATM, not a physical library with books. "It's already a combination of that," she admitted.

"Almost any knowledge base or information source will be available to anyone, whenever and wherever they are," Stephens predicted. Most common governmental services and requests for information will be accessible by carry-along devices - perhaps an iPad-iPhone-wristwatch combo, but inside our heads.

"Someone will figure out how to get information and display it so that we can see it - perhaps right into our brains through some machine-human interface," Stephens projected. "We won't have to look at a screen, we'll see and hear in our mind. The television, personal computer and telephone will be obsolete.... Walls will be smart."

Congressman Tom Rooney, R-Tequesta, uses high-speed Internet to reach out and touch his Florida constituents. He posts YouTube videos of his speeches on the House floor or his radio-TV interviews. Users can comment and ask questions.

He also hosts telephonic town halls. "Constituents can ask questions and we can interact directly," Rooney said.

Back to the future

"If we assume for a moment that the rate of change over the next 20 years will be similar to that of the last two decades, only a prescient prophet would dare predict the impact of technology on our society in 2030," SFCC's Stephens said. "And I believe that change is accelerating - there may be as much of a transformation over the next five years as there was over the last 20 years."

"The age of technology and information is surely in its infancy," Stephens said. "Technology will profoundly change the role of governments, local, state, national, and international, over the next two decades."