Will We Want Water In 2009?

The past three years have been disappointingly dry for fish, flowers and farmers.

A drought began in 2006 with rainfall 10 inches below the 52-inch normal. Even worse, 2007 fell 14 inches short. And 2008 was only slightly better, a deficit of 6 inches in south region of the Southwest Florida Water Management District, which includes Charlotte, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Manatee and Sarasota counties.

So, what's 2009 going to be like?

Currently, said Steve Jervey, chief meteorologist at WFLA TV in Tampa, there's a high pressure mass of warm, dry air over the South that's keeping out the freezing air from the North.

But that good news also bears bad news. Thanks, for the warm December and January, but the mixture of moist warm and cold air causes precipitation, so don't expect much rain this winter.

"And these months are critical," Jervey said. "We're coming out of a dry year. So April, May and June are going to become that much more critical."

Rainfall recharges the aquifers, the vast, underground lakes from which most Florida cities draw their water.

The aquifer in SWFWMD's south region was down 2.21 feet on Dec. 23, 2007. In a year, it rose to a deficit of only .11 feet from normal, according to Rebecca Geiger's weekly aquifer update.

But, she noted, aquifers reach annual highs during the rainy season, which concluded in November, and drop to their lows when the rainy season starts, in June.

When the aquifer drops two feet, irrigation and drinking water wells - some of which are only 40 feet deep - may go dry.

Marty Roepstorff, utilities director for the city of Sebring, has a better outlook.

"Our wells are over 1,000 to 1,500 feet deep," Roepstorff said. And 60 to 70 percent of Highlands County's population is on central water, so they won't have water quantity or quality concerns.

A drought's greatest and most immediate effect is on surface water.

What's the effect in Highlands County?

"It depends on where we look," said Clell Ford, lakes manager. "Lake June received about 63 inches of rain last year - about 8 inches above normal."

But in the northern part of the county, monitoring stations recorded as little as 50 inches.

In the middle, Lake Jackson rose from an all-time low 96.25 inches above sea level to 99.5 in November, then dropped back to 99.25 in December, as the dry season started, Ford said.

"Lake Jackson came up a tremendous amount," Ford said.

During the dry season, lakes will drop a half-foot a month, Ford said. He expects Lake Jackson will be back in the 97 foot range this year. Before the drought started, Lake Jackson was slightly overfull at 102.7 feet.

"Lake Istokpoga is great right now," Ford said; "39.5 feet, as full as SWFMWD will allow it to be. They're releasing water into Okeechobee."

Okeechobee, the 662 square-mile mother of all Florida lakes, is at 14.03 feet, 3.75 feet higher than a year ago.

"That's a big lake, so that's a lot of water," Ford said.

SWFWMD spokeswoman Robyn Felix looks long term, and sees a 27-inch water deficit over the past three years.

"Water resources aren't getting filled up," Felix said. All the rivers in Southwest Florida are running below normal levels, she said.

"We're expecting it to be a very dry winter and spring," she said. "Climatologists are predicting drier than normal levels," she said. "So it could be a busy wildfire season."

In Tampa, an extreme water shortage is expected. The Hillsborough and Alafia rivers are a foot below record lows.

The Tampa Tribune is reporting the 15 billion gallon Tampa Bay Water reservoir - which can't be filled because of cracks - could run dry before the end of March. And that's two months before the rainy season begins. Wells are expected to exceed their pumping limits.

Once-a-week watering restrictions have been tightened in Tampa.

"We've asked the local governments to step up enforcement, to stop issuing warnings and to issue citations instead. We're lowering the establishing period for sod," she said.

Aesthetic outdoor fountains should be turned off, Felix said. Watering is not allowed from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.

She's asking residents and businesses to make sure the automatic watering system turns itself off when rain has fallen, and to make sure only lawns are watered, not driveways and sidewalks.