Locally, H1N1 flu season in decline

If you haven't figured it out yet, the flu season still has a long way to go.

Locally, the incidents of swine flu have dropped, said Dr. Cary Pigman, at Florida Hospital Heartland Division.

"From my perspective at the ER, it peaked six or eight weeks ago," he said. "We were seeing 30 new cases a day. Now we're seeing four or five cases a day."

Two local people died of the swine flu, the Centers for Disease Control have reported, and nine have been hospitalized. Yet, for most people, the H1N1 was a mild form of influenza, Pigman said.

It's not over

However, there are still two great unknowns, agreed Pigman and Leona Braithwaite, an epidemiologist at Highlands County Health Department. One is how long the swine flu epidemic will last.

"Nobody can predict what's going to happen," Braithwaithe said.

The other question is when the seasonal flu will arrive.

"We are not starting to show seasonal strains yet," she said.

Of the 251 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths reported to CDC, 82 percent were swine flu related. Only one was confirmed as the seasonal influenza virus.

However, the CDC Web site admitted the swine flu test may not be accurate, something Pigman already knew. Flipping a coin could have produced the same statistical results.

"The test was only positive in 50 percent of people we were pretty sure had the disease," he said. "We stopped doing it because it was such a poor test. We abandoned the test."

After Christmas and holiday travel season, the health experts are saying, expect a reoccurrence of swine flu.

And when it comes back, Pigman suggested, it may not be the same swine flu we've seen since April 2009.

There's still much about the virus researchers don't understand, Pigman said, and one is why it's so perilous for pregnant women late in their terms.

He does have advice, however: "I remain a fan of immunization. I think everyone ought to be immunized."

CDC statistics

During the week of Nov. 22-28, according to the CDC, influenza activity decreased across all key indicators. However, the Atlanta organization warned, most indicators remain higher than normal for this time of year.

Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness nationally decreased again this week over last week. This is the fifth consecutive week of national decreases influenza like illnesses after four consecutive weeks of sharp increases.

Eight of the 10 American regions continue to report influenza activity above what is expected for this time of year, but visits to doctors for influenza-like illness still remain elevated nationally. The Northwest and the Southwest are reporting little activity.

Influenza hospitalization rates have decreased across all age groups, but remain higher than expected for this time of year. Though declining, hospitalization rates continue to be highest in children 4 or younger.

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza declined last week, but this is the ninth consecutive week that the proportion of deaths has been above the epidemic threshold.Seventeen flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 12 had H1N1, five were associated with influenza.

Florida is among 25 states still reporting widespread influenza activity - mostly from the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area. Highlands County is listed among 38 other counties with sporadic flu reports. So is Okeechobee, which has reported a swine death in the past week.

1918 flu pandemic was the worst

The 1918 flu pandemic spread to nearly every part of the world, affecting up to 500 million people. At the time, that was nearly 3 percent of the world population of 1.6 billion.

The Spanish flu lasted 27 months, killing from 20 to 40 million people, particularly adults under age 40. Only 15 million people were killed in World War I.

Of the 43,000 U.S. soldiers who died the European war, half were felled by influenza virus and not to enemy bullets or bombs.

Source: Stanford.edu

Don't fall for swine flu scam

The CDC is receiving reports of fraudulent e-mails.

In phishing messages, scam artists are telling computer users that everyone over age 18 must register at the State Vaccination H1N1 Web site and create a vaccination profile. Just click on the link, users are invited.

No, the CDC said. "Do not follow unsolicited links and do not open or respond to unsolicited email messages."

For an example of a phishing e-mail, go to the CDC Web site on Health Related Hoaxes and Rumors at http://www.cdc.gov/hoaxes_rumors.html