Cold Front May Hit Area Next Weekend

That first cold snap of cooler, drier air might hit the area as soon as next Saturday night.

Outside Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg where the Tampa Bay Rays are locked in a play-off fight with the Boston Red Sox, it will feel more like typical October World Series Weather. We are experiencing a transition period from tropical to drier winter weather.

The cold front associated with Sunday's snowstorm in Montana might reach Highlands County by next weekend, said Dan Noah, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

"It will feel a lot cooler and drier when cold air pushes south," said Noah.

Next Sunday's highs might top out at 79 F, while lows could reach the high 50s, according to Noah.

Typically, early on, cooler air in the Heartland is shortlived and only lasts a day or two, while the real cooling down occurs in November, according to a NWS statement issued Sept. 22 from Ruskin.

Overnight lows are used to monitor that first cold snap, which typically happens when a cold front from the north blows into the area.

Factors causing cooler temps also include the amount of cloud cover, the winds, moisture in the air and the dew point.

Annually, Oct. 6 is the average date for temperatures at Archbold Biological Station, south of Lake Placid, to dip below 60 F.

The earliest date the temperature reached 60 F on record at Archbold was Sept. 8, 1997, and the latest was Nov. 4, 2007.

The average date when the mercury bottoms out below 55 degrees at the biological station is Oct. 20. This fall's temperatures have not yet hit reached 55 F at Archbold.

More rain already fell in most of the area during October than did in September. The regular cycle of daily thunderstorms typically occurs from May through the end of September.

Noah reported that October temperatures have been above normal, which is still pretty typical.

The National Weather Services' long-range forecast for the three months of November, December and January calls for normal temperatures and normal precipitation.

The hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30. Noah said at least one more hurricane is likely, though whether a storm impacts Florida is still up in the air.

Cold fronts moving form the north affect hurricanes.

"Hurricanes can't go through a cold front," said Noah. "A hurricane will either move to the left or the right, and not hit head on."