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Highlands Today

Endangered Democrats

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By Gary Pinnell | Highlands Today

Published: December 27, 2007

SEBRING — In 2005, when Tim Mahoney entered the 16th District congressional race against Mark Foley, political prognosticators gave him no chance to win. As late as Sept. 12, 2006, even a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll had Mahoney trailing Foley 35 to 48 percent.

But on Sept. 29, Foley resigned after a Web site revealed the congressman had been sending salacious e-mails to teenaged House pages. Even so, Mahoney eked out just a 1.8 percent margin of victory over Foley's replacement, State Rep. Joe Negron, in November 2006.

In 2007, the crystal balls started saying Mahoney couldn't possibly win re-election in 2008.

So are Mahoney's opponents. In an interview with CQ Politics, state Rep. Gayle Harrell, R-Stuart, said Mahoney's win was a fluke, and he was simply "the luckiest guy around." But she also cautioned Republicans against assuming the seat will be easy to recapture.

"It's a different day," Harrell said. "We have a Democrat-controlled Congress and the Democrat Party is putting huge resources into this. So we can't underestimate how difficult it will be to take it back."

Partisan Politics

Harrell is one of three Republicans who has raised at least $300,000, even though it's still 10 months from Election Day.

His three Republican opponents are: Harrell, $337,586; Hal Valeche, $344,933, and Thomas Joseph Rooney, $428,818. About $80,000 of Rooney's money has come from family members, many of whom are associated with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

As if to emphasize Harrell's point, combined, the three Republicans have raised $1.1 million. Mahoney raised $1.3 million through the Sept. 30 filing deadline.

Mahoney, a former Republican who switched to Democrat in the past few years, described himself as a moderate. Republicans are casting him as a liberal.

CQ said Mahoney allied himself with the Democratic leadership in the House 84 percent of the time, the 15th lowest among House Democrats. The median party unity score was 97 percent.

In the 16th district, Republicans outnumber Democrats 202,000 to 170,000. But there are also 103,000 who claim to be independents, or have no party affiliation. Those swing voters are the key to any congressional election.

The Rothenberg Political Report, an independent newsletter that follows U.S. House and Senate contests, rates Florida's District 16 as "a pure toss-up."

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan, online analysis of electoral politics, on Dec. 16 rated Florida's 16th District as leaning Democratic.

A third political analyst, University of Virginia political science Prof. Larry Sabato, calls Mahoney "potentially vulnerable" because he drew 50.97 percent of the two-party vote in 2006.

"The political pendulum most likely won't be as far to the left in 2008 as it was (in 2006), and as a result, the first-term Democrats ... start the cycle with much bigger targets on their back," Sabato wrote.

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