Citrus-crop estimates dip slightly

Citrus growers in California and Florida reported very little damage from freezing temperatures that blasted both states - the former in December and the latter in early January — but U.S. Department of Agriculture crop estimates released Jan. 12 show slight decreases in both states' crops from earlier projections.

About 8.98 million tons of oranges are expected to be produced in 2011-12, 2 percent lower than the previous forecast but still 1 percent higher than last season, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Those projections do not take into account a Jan. 16-17 freeze that frosted California's San Joaquin Valley with the coldest night of the winter to date. Navels appeared to escape unscathed, though an unseasonal 85 percent were still on the tree, and most of the clementine crop has already been harvested.

W. Murcotts, which account for about one-third of California's mandarin acreage and which still had around one-third of the crop to be harvested, took the worst hit from the freeze, though the extent of the damage will not be known for days or weeks.

There will be "some damage" to mandarins "in the northern part of the citrus belt," Shirley Batchman, director of government affairs for California Citrus Mutual in Exeter, Calif., said Jan. 17. "We just don't know the level of that damage."

Bad weather in California and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's announcement of a fungicide banned in the U.S. turning up in orange juice mixed with domestic and Brazilian oranges could have an effect on the Florida citrus market.

Any crimp in the California crop would bode well for Sunshine State fresh producers, pushing up prices. And while orange juice futures rose on the discovery of the banned fungicide, there is some concern that public perception could hurt Florida growers, since about 95 percent of the state's crop goes into juice. While all-Florida juices are widely available, some growers are concerned that consumers will not make the leap in logic and realize those products do not contain the banned fungicide from Brazil.

Florida is expected to produce about 147 million boxes of oranges, up from 140 million boxes last season. California should produce about 58 million boxes, down from 62 million.

California citrus growers spent an estimated $87 million in December on freeze mitigation efforts, according to California Citrus Mutual. Wind machines and irrigation were required on 25 nights that month to protect California's crop. There were no hard freezes, but overall it was one of the coldest Decembers in California history. Growers of clementines and mandarins incurred some losses in December, but the damage was not widespread.

Florida growers had far fewer cold nights to contend with.

An arctic blast that originated in Siberia pushed its way into Florida Jan. 3, sending temperatures below freezing in some of the state's citrus and production areas. There was "some damage in low-lying areas and cold pockets," and temperatures dipped into the mid-20s in some areas, but the duration of subfreezing temperatures was not long enough to do much damage, according to a spokesperson from Florida Citrus Mutual. Some inland growers again employed mitigation efforts as temperatures hovered near freezing Jan. 4, but no further complications were noted.

The Florida all orange forecast, at 147 million boxes (6.62 million tons), is down 2 percent from the December forecast but up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 73 million boxes (3.29 million tons), down 3 percent from the December forecast but up 4 percent from last season. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 74 million boxes (3.33 million tons) is down 1 percent from the December forecast but up 6 percent from the 2010-11 crop.

Sizes for Valencia and early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are expected to be larger than average; however, size measurements for both were down from the December forecast due to the fact that little rainfall was received in Florida's citrus-growing region during December.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice yield forecast for the 2011-12 season is 1.56 gallons per box, down 3 percent from the December forecast and 2 percent lower than last season's final yield of 1.59 gallons per box. The early-midseason portion is projected at 1.44 gallons per box, down 5 percent from last season's yield of 1.52 gallons per. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.7 gallons per box, 2 percent higher than last year's final yield of 1.66 gallons per.

California had about twice as much rain in December as is typical, helping offset grower costs for freeze mitigation by providing natural irrigation. The state is expected to produce 44 million boxes of early, midseason, and Navel oranges, down from 48 million in 2010-11. Valencia orange production is projected to be 13.5 million boxes, the same as in 2010-11.

The USDA projects Florida will produce 5.2 million boxes of white grapefruit this season, down from 5.85 million last season and continuing a downward trend of several years. Colored grapefruit production, however, is expected to increase slightly, to 14 million boxes this season from 13.9 million in 2010-11. California growers will contribute 3.3 million boxes of grapefruit, down from 4.1 million last season, while Texas growers are projected to bring 4.97 million boxes to market, down from 6.3 million last season.

California growers are expected to produce 10.3 million boxes of tangerines and mandarins this season, up from 9.9 million in 2010-11. Florida growers will produce 4.4 million boxes, down from 4.65 million last season, and Arizona growers will add 200,000 boxes to the total, down one-third from 2010-11's 300,000. Florida growers will produce 1.1 million boxes of tangelos this season, down slightly from 1.15 million last season.

California is projected to produce 19.5 million boxes of lemons, down from 21 million last season, while Arizona will produce 700,000, a substantial drop from 2010-11's 2.5 million.]

For oranges, California net pounds per box are 80, Florida's 90, and Texas' 85. For grapefruit, California's net pounds per box are 80, Florida's 85, and Texas' 80.

For tangerines and mandarins, California and Arizona's net pounds per box are 80, Florida's 95.

Lemons are a standard 80 net pounds per box, and tangelos a standard 90.